Future summers: how hot your area is set to get
See how many hot days and warm nights your council area has now, and at 2°C, 2.5°C and 4°C of global warming, from the Met Office UKCP18 projections.
Showing Westminster
Days above 30°C in Westminster
5
2001-2020
13
at +2.5°C
Days a year when the maximum temperature goes above 30°C.
Warming level
How much warmer the world is than pre-industrial. The Met Office says current commitments point to about 2.4°C to 2.8°C.
Bars show the median of the model ensemble, and the line through each bar spans the Met Office's lower and upper estimates. Grey bars are the recent climate. Source: Met Office UKCP18 local-authority projections, Climate Data Portal. Contains Met Office data licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
How this works
The figures are the Met Office's UKCP18 projections, averaged over each local authority and published on the Met Office Climate Data Portal. They are reported for global warming levels rather than years, because when each level is reached depends on future emissions. Each value is the median of an ensemble of climate models, with lower and upper estimates.
Days above 30°C, days above 25°C and nights above 20°C are counts a year. Cooling degree days add up, over a year, how many degrees the daily mean temperature sits above 22°C, which makes them a good guide to how much a cooling system would need to run. The 1981 to 2000 and 2001 to 2020 periods correspond to about 0.5°C and 0.9°C of global warming.
Looking up an address finds its council area from the property record. Nothing you enter is stored.
Sources
Questions people ask
How many hot days will the UK have in future?
It depends on where you are and how much the world warms. In Westminster the Met Office projects days above 30°C rising from about 5 a year in the 2001 to 2020 climate to about 13 at 2.5°C of global warming.
What is a tropical night?
A night when the temperature does not fall below 20°C. They are rare in the UK now but become more common as the climate warms, especially in cities.
Which warming level should I look at?
The Met Office notes that current international commitments point to about 2.4°C to 2.8°C, so +2.5°C is a sensible central case. The higher levels show the risk if emissions stay high.